24 September 2004 - Election Editorial

Don't get caught up in all the popular votes polls that are currently being conducted by all the various organizations out there. They are useful to a point, they will give you an idea how the Country may be leaning, but will not give you an idea as to the actual outcome of the election.

This is even more difficult to determine when you have the latest Gallup poll showing a 14 point Bush margin, but another showing only a two point margin. A lot of things are going to affect the results: actual days and times the polls are conducted, likely vs. registered voters, and methods of receiving data - among others. One of the better ideas, some of these analysts have had is to take all the latest polling data and take an average. However, that still may skew the results if polls outside a norm are also execepted. For example, the next largest margin after the Gallup poll is 8 by a CBS/Time Magazine Poll. If you take out the two extremes for each candidate, the following result is returned:

Bush: 48.6%
Kerry: 44.0%
Nader: 2%
Avg. Margin of error: 3.4%

(source of all polls: http://www.slate.com/id/2106527/)

The lead is slightly out of the Margin of Error in the favor of George W. Bush, which would give him a slight popular vote lead. Note, that most pollsters do not consider a lead 'solid' unless it is double the MOE.

Those who are Kerry supporters should not be dis-heartened. The most recent polls show Kerry starting to pull even with Bush in the popular vote contest. As we all know, the popular vote is going to be extremely close.

Now, looking at the State-by-State polls, it is even more confusing. Most polling conducted at the state level gives George W. Bush a significant advantage in States that are solidly for him. Kerry needs to bank on Swing States to deliver him the election. There are three types of Swing States in this election:

Up for Grabs but unless something drastic happens, Kerry will win: Pa, Or, Mi, Mn, Me, Ia, Nj
Up for Grabs but unless something drastic happens, Bush will win: Oh, Nv, Ar
Totally up for grabs: Fl, Nm

Some may argue that the leaning Kerry/Bush states are more up for grabs than indicated above. However, past election history and wide swing in polls seem to indicate otherwise. To show how crazy some of the polls are, look at two states that are considered 'in play':

Maryland
Virginia

These states are definitely going to Kerry and Bush, respectively and the polls are probably a bit misleading. It is true that there is a better chance for Kerry to lose one or two of his leaning states, which would change the entire complexion of the election. Bottomline, running various scenarios it is going to come down to Florida again. The candidate who can win Florida will win the election. The polls, leaning for awhile toward Bush are swinging slightly back to Kerry in Florida. However, it probably is Bush's to lose. Without Florida, Kerry could still win but cannot have any suprise upset in any states. What is more likely, without Florida it could very well be a 269/269 race - under a lot of scenarios. This would then go to the House to decide and most likely mean that Bush would be elected again.

Bottom line is that the race is entirely too close to call. Looking at the National Polls is not going to give you an indication as to who is doing better. The best indicator is to review the Electoral Map, that typically has Bush ahead. However, concentrate on Florida, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania. Kerry MUST win Pennsylvania and probably needs Florida. Bush is slightly in the driver's seat but there is a long way to go.

(Paul Zeitlin is a registered Democrat, however he is trying to present an unbiased view as to how the election will turn-out).