The Debate

The first debate is in the books and what I thought before the debate held true:

1) The Democrats thought Kerry won.
2) The Republicans thought Bush won.
3) The swing voters were leaning to Kerry.

It is hard to believe, as a Democrat, to see how the GOP supporters thought that Bush won this debate. He looked tired, disinterested, frustrated, and bored. Karl Rove didn't provide him enough material to cover 90 minutes without repeating himself. But what this proves is that the key to this election, like all elections, is not the Republican or Democrat supporters but the swing voters those who really are not identifying with a particular candidate.

To this point I have believed that this election was a referendum on Bush. That, as long as the Democratic candidate didn't do anything harmful to his candidacy, he would win or lose based on whether the American People thought that Bush had done well enough with the War and the Economy. But a strange thing happened at that debate. I think, to a small degree, Kerry provided more reason for the American People to vote for him beyond simply being the vote against Bush. He looked Presidential and provided a different view. This may resonate with some swing voters, we shall see.

Kerry was far from perfect in this debate himself. While he was successful pushing back on Bush's attacks. I felt that he changed his position of whether we should go to War during the debate! I believe he is a pragmatic politician who does what he believes is right at the time and will change his position based on those beliefs. However, being labeled as a flip-flopper, should have pushed him to be very straight and understanable about his position. He was not. This was probably his biggest flaw during the debate. Additionally, if he had provided more details about his policies during the debate, he could have gone for the knockout punch. However, all in all, he did a good job.

Bush really suprised me. He looked much worse than I expected. I expected the Bush of 2000 who was crisp, very personable, and sure of himself on stage. He was none of those things, and like the election, Kerry didn't nescessarily win. Bush lost. My take is that the GOP was expecting a passive Kerry that was reminicient of Gore in 2000 and the less that Bush said, the better. I think having to actually defend his record and having direct attacks made on him was not expected by Mr. Rove or Mr. Bush. Bush also let his frustration visibly and verbally get to him. Finally, he stayed on message but sounded like a broken record that everyone knew was coming. I think this actually hurt him more than helped as it gave Kerry a chance to address all the concerns brought up previously by the GOP.

I am going to discuss the VP debate in much detail as it usually as little or no effect on the election. For proof, the Bentsen/Quayle debate was a knockout for the Democrats but didn't help the Democrats at all during the election. I will say that Edwards is that much better than Kerry, but Cheney is that much better than Bush. If you could get past all the posturing, this really could be a debate about the issues with two intelligent men.

The next Presidential Debate is Friday. Some are saying the focus on the Encomomy and Town Hall format will be in favor of Kerry. But I suspect that the Rovites will be working double time this week and Bush will be extremely prepared. The great thing about talking about the Economy is you can make the numbers say anything. So a soundbite ready Bush that has Economic numbers, getting intimate with the crowd, and lower expecations will make Bush a strong advesary. Kerry has his work cut out for him and, to be honest, I haven't seen enough of him to know if he is more like Gore or Clinton in these settings. My impression is about in the middle and maybe slightly leaning toward Gore. We'll see. Fortunately, the final debate is again in a setting that may favor Kerry.